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Yes, housing markets in the West — including Utah — went haywire after the COVID-19 pandemic sent many Americans house shopping.
The rush on housing in fast-growing, relatively more affordable areas like the West pushed prices sky high. But now as higher mortgage rates temper demand, does that mean prices are about to hit free fall?
The answer to that question is nuanced. While experts don’t predict home values to plummet like they did in 2006, some do say it’s possible prices in particularly “overvalued” regional markets could see prices fall up to 10% over the next year, maybe even up to 20% if an economic recession hits. Some economists have especially been eyeing Boise, Idaho as an area with among the highest chances of that happening.
But what about Utah?
The Beehive State, with its yearslong housing shortage, rapid population growth, strong job market and desirable proximity to world-class hiking and skiing, is still facing quite a bit of housing demand — and economists have ranked its regional markets as having lower risk of home price drops compared to Boise’s market.
And this week, CNBC ranked Utah No. 1 for having the most “stable” housing market, according to the outlet’s America’s Top States for Business study.
“No matter how you look at it, the housing market in the Beehive State is buzzing,” CNBC reported.
“Prices are rising at the second highest rate in the country, but with the nation’s fastest pace of new construction, plenty of new inventory is on the way in Utah. Foreclosures are manageable and home equity is strong in the top housing market in the nation.”
CNBC also had a more optimistic ranking for Idaho than other economists like Moody’s Analytics, which told Fortune Boise could see prices drop up to 20% if a recession hits.
Rather, CNBC ranked Idaho as the No. 5 most stable housing market in the nation.
“Idaho’s housing market has been going gangbusters for some time now. Buying a home in the Gem State is not for the faint of heart,” CNBC reported. “But new construction is slowly starting to relieve the inventory squeeze. Rising foreclosures are a potential warning sign if the economy tips into a recession.”
Here’s how CNBC’s “stable” housing markets ranked. The outlet considered the states’ 2022 economic rankings, year-over-year price appreciation, new construction per year and rate of foreclosures and insolvency for the ranking.
1. Utah
2022 Economy Rank: No. 6 (Top States Grade: A).
Appreciation: 27.1%.
Home starts per 1,000 population: 12.2.
Foreclosure rate: 1 in 2,063 housing units.
Underwater mortgages: 1.4%.
2. Washington
2022 Economy Rank: No. 3 (Top States Grade: A).
Appreciation: 20.1%.
Starts per 1,000 population: 7.3.
Foreclosure rate: 1 in 4,965 housing units.
Underwater mortgages: 1.2%.
3. Florida
2022 Economy Rank: No. 4 (Top States Grade: A).
Appreciation: 25.7%.
Starts per 1,000 population: 9.6.
Foreclosure rate: 1 in 1,211 housing units.
Underwater mortgages: 1.4%.
4. Texas
2022 Economy Rank: No. 8 (Top States Grade: A-).
Appreciation: 19.3%.
Starts per 1,000 population: 8.9.
Foreclosure rate: 1 in 2,326 housing units.
Underwater mortgages: 2.5%.
5. Idaho
2022 Economy Rank: No. 5 (Top States Grade: A).
Appreciation: 27%.
Starts per 1,000 population: 10.5.
Foreclosure rate: 1 in 6,015 housing units.
Underwater mortgages: 1.6%.
6. Tennessee
2022 Economy Rank: No. 2 (Top States Grade: A+).
Appreciation: 24.1%.
Starts per 1,000 population: 8.2.
Foreclosure rate: 1 in 2,797 housing units.
Underwater mortgages: 2.9%.
7. Vermont
2022 Economy Rank: No. 33 (Top States Grade: D+).
Appreciation: 20%.
Starts per 1,000 population: 3.2.
Foreclosure rate: 1 in 13,930 housing units.
Underwater mortgages: 1.1%.
8. Arizona
2022 Economy Rank: No. 22 (tie) (Top States Grade: C-).
Appreciation: 27.4%.
Starts per 1,000 population: 9.
Foreclosure rate: 1 in 1,861 housing units.
Underwater mortgages: 1.4%.
9. South Carolina
2022 Economy Rank: No. 13 (tie) (Top States Grade: B-).
Appreciation: 21.4%.
Starts per 1,000 population: 9.5.
Foreclosure rate: 1 in 1,081 housing units.
Underwater mortgages: 3.4%.
10. South Dakota
2022 Economy Rank: No. 12 (Top States Grade: B-).
Appreciation: 20.1%.
Starts per 1,000 population: 8.8.
Foreclosure rate: 1 in 17,724 housing units.
Underwater mortgages: 4.8%.
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